I am posting about Plaza quite regularly. This one is about the inventory, sales, and some fascination with predictions.
Active units
As of today, there are 13 units for sale in The Plaza Resort & Spa.
The lowest priced ocean view unit is $45,900. There is another unit for sale for a bit less than $50K making a total of 2 units under $50K.
6 units between $50K and $60K.
Then there are 3 units in the $60s, one for $75K and one for $99,900.
If you are trying to make sense of these numbers, figuring that the unit for $99,900 is somehow better than less expensive units, don’t. There is no rhythm or reason for that.
Let’s say the lowest priced city view unit is $50K, and the unit for $45,900, which is ocean view, should have more value…
The first direct oceanfront unit, which should be the most valuable, is $69,900 and a unit for $75K is on the same stack, only on a lower floor. And unit for $99,900 is the same oceanfront unit as the one for $69,900 and $75,000, only, again, on even lower floor.
Doesn’t make any sense? Yep, it doesn’t.
It only makes sense when the units are sold by one unit holder, like a developer. Then you will see that each floor up would cost a bit more, and the view would be reflected in the price. You will see the structure, the rhythm, and the reason…
But when you are looking at resales, then they have relatively little value reference. It is a reflection of the Seller needs. No, the owners of the unit for $99,900 are not stupid as long as they understand that it would take a longer time to sell their unit if the market would be warming up. Then the question would be not the price, but the time needed to get to this price.
If you have time, you control the price. But usually, people sell because they need to sell. And they put the unit at a price, which they hope they may get and get soon.
So, we have two questions here.
1. Is the market warming up?
2. How fast is it warming up, if it is?
And to answer these questions, we need to look at sales.
Sales
Latest activity in The Plaza Resort & Spa since January 1 this year yielded 6 sales. The lowest price was $35K (purchaser was our client). The lowest oceanfront unit was sold for $37,500 (purchaser was our client).
3 units in the $50s and one for $60K… 3 out of last 4 were direct oceanfront units.
What we see is that the market was very active (6 sales in less than 3 months), however, the prices were very low.
So, today’s prices seem like a step up. Can you say that this is the indication of a warming market? Judging only by Plaza it would be a difficult call. But if you look at overall condo-hotel and condo market, the answer is “yes”. It is a cautious step up…
Look at the activity. 6 units in less than 3 months… Compare to the same less than 3 months in 2017. 0 sales. In 2016 there were 5 sales in the same less than a 3-month period. Same 5 units were sold in a 3 month period in 2015.
Sales in The Plaza Resort & Spa in 2017 were: 14 units.
I do not want to compare to previous years, as there were 10 sales by a developer, whom I represented, and it would distort the statistical data.
So, we have 13 units for sale now with six sales taking place already. We have 14 units changing hands in 2017. What are the chances of these units, which are for sale now, to change hands by the year end?
Predictions
Don’t expect me to come with a number. It would depend on how many more listings would be coming to the market and at what prices. In any case, unless the market would start going crazy like 12 years ago, the chances to sell a unit for $99,900 are still slim, even though in 2013 prices for direct oceanfront units were over $100K. So, even today it does not look promising, it could happen at a slight change in the market in Plaza, which, by the way, is not in the desert, and local market affects it.
So, Plaza is a bit more active. This is a good sign. Prices, at least, asking prices, are up, which is another good thing.
Hurricane damage is fixed, and the property looks OK. There is still some deferred maintenance needed, but it seems to be falling into a regular activity.
